How Bolton got himself fired, CNN. com

Peter Bergen is CNN’s national security analyst, a vice president at New America and a professor of practice at Arizona State University. He is completing a book about President Trump’s national security team and policies. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion articles at CNN.

(CNN)John Bolton’s defenestration was a long time coming. On so many issues — North Korea, Iran, and Venezuela — President Trump’s national security adviser’s bellicose views and advice repeatedly clashed with those of his mercurial boss.

Bolton was a workaholic who would routinely rise at 3:30 a.m., and he understood on a deep level how to operate in the DC bureaucracy — after all, he had started working in Washington for the Reagan administration.
Bolton was inclined to bring a gun to any bureaucratic knife fight. As soon as he assumed office as the national security adviser, Bolton immediately fired Tom Bossert, Trump’s homeland security adviser, who reported directly to the President and was, at least theoretically, of equal stature to Bolton.
Bolton was also steeped in the arcana of arms control negotiations and weapons-of-mass-destruction issues and had served as the top official at the State Department working on arms control in the George W. Bush administration, resulting in Bolton’s longstanding skepticism toward Iran. In 2015, Bolton wrote in the New York Times that the US should bomb Iran because “Iran will not negotiate away its nuclear program,” which is exactly what Iran did that same year by negotiating the nuclear agreement with the Obama administration and other world powers.
It was hardly surprising, then, that with Bolton now in place as national security adviser, Trump announced on May 8, 2018, that he was pulling out of the Iran nuclear agreement. As Bolton stood off to one side behind him, Trump gave a press conference at the White House announcing the pullout, saying, “The fact is that this was a horrible one-sided deal that should never, ever have been made.”
But in recent months Trump had made a number of conciliatory gestures to Iran. Following the Iranians bringing down an American drone in the Persian Gulf in June, Trump had approved a strike against Iranian missile batteries and radars but then he abruptly called off the operation.
Trump then said he would speak to the Iranians with “no preconditions.” This went against everything that Bolton had stood for as he had long pushed for regime change in Iran.
Iran’s foreign minister Mohammad Zarif told reporters in New York on July 18, 2019, that in exchange for the lifting of UN sanctions, Iran would allow international inspectors greater latitude to inspect its nuclear program.
Zarif didn’t have a huge amount of juice with the mullahs who actually ran the show in Iran, but Iran’s hardline former President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, certainly did. Around the same time that Zarif made his offer, Ahmadinejad told the New York Times, “Mr. Trump is a man of action. He is a businessman and therefore he is capable of calculating cost-benefits and making a decision. We say to him, let’s calculate the long-term cost-benefit of our two nations and not be shortsighted.”
Trump seemed to now be looking for an opening to the Iranians which Bolton would surely have been an impediment to.

North Korea

Two months before meeting with Trump in Singapore in June 2018, North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un had declared that he was suspending nuclear weapons and missile tests.
However, Bolton seemed intent on sabotaging any accommodation with the North Koreans. A month before he had started to work at the White House, Bolton had written a piece for the Wall Street Journal in which he laid out the purported legal arguments for a preemptive war against North Korea. This would be a redo of the invasion of Iraq in 2003, of which Bolton remained a vocal supporter.
Within weeks of taking up his position as national security adviser, Bolton said publicly that the administration was contemplating the “Libya model” for North Korea.
This referred to the Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi, who had agreed to abandon his weapons-of-mass-destruction program in the early 2000s in exchange for lifting the onerous sanctions that were then in place on his regime. A few years later, in 2011, US-backed rebels toppled Gadhafi’s regime. The rebels then hunted Gadhafi down and killed him in a ditch.
For Kim, the “Libya model” was code for regime change; Kim had no intention of ending up dead in a ditch. Keeping his nukes was key to Kim’s plan to remain in power indefinitely.
The North Korean first deputy prime minister, Kim Kye-Gwan, said of Bolton, “We do not hide our feeling of repugnance towards him.”
Sarah Sanders, then-White House press secretary, quickly distanced the Trump administration from the “Libya model,” saying, “I’m not aware that that’s a model that we’re using.”
In February, Trump met Kim again in Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam, but Trump pulled out of the meeting early when Kim didn’t offer much in the way of “denuclearization.” Three months after the failed talks in Hanoi, the North Koreans launched some short-range ballistic missiles.
At a press conference in Japan in late May 2019, Trump contradicted Bolton, who had just told reporters that those launches contravened UN Security Council resolutions. Trump said he wasn’t bothered by the launches.
When Trump met with Kim Jong Un for the third time at the Demilitarized Zone between North and South Korea to discuss North Korea’s nuclear program, along tagged Jared and Ivanka Kushner, and Fox News’ Tucker Carlson. Meanwhile, Bolton, who had spent much of his professional career focused on arms control issues, went on a previously scheduled trip to . . . Mongolia.
Earlier this year Bolton had also pushed for a coup in Venezuela against the socialist strongman president Nicolás Maduro. A coup attempt by the country’s opposition, which the US supported, fizzled. Trump blamed Bolton for the botched coup.
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In May, Trump said that he actually moderated the bellicose Bolton: “I’m the one who tempers him, which is OK. I have John Bolton and I have people who are a little more dovish than him.”
Given the amount of turnover in his cabinet, Trump couldn’t get rid of Bolton immediately, but he started thinking about other candidates to be his national security adviser, according to a former senior Trump administration official I have spoken to.
According to this official, Trump has met in recent months with Fox News talking head Colonel Douglas Macgregor, a retired army officer with a doctorate. Unlike Bolton, Macgregor is an extreme skeptic about American military interventions in the greater Middle East, appearing on Fox to rail against the “globalist elite” on Capitol Hill and at the Pentagon and State Department that were purportedly pushing for the continuation of the Afghan War. Macgregor has also appeared on Fox strongly opposing any kind of conflict with Iran. Of course, just because Trump has talked to Macgregor, that doesn’t mean he will necessarily be offered the job.
Trump wrote on Twitter Tuesday that he would appoint a new national security adviser by next week. It will be his fourth in that role.

Trump smells a bad deal, makes the right call on Taliban peace talks, CNN.com

Trump smells a bad deal, makes the right call on Taliban peace talks

Peter Bergen is CNN’s national security analyst, a vice president at New America and a professor of practice at Arizona State University. He is completing a book about President Trump’s national security team and policies and has reported from Afghanistan for CNN since 1993. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion articles at CNN.

(CNN)On Saturday, President Donald Trump tweeted that “the major Taliban leaders and, separately, the President of Afghanistan, were going to secretly meet with me at Camp David on Sunday.” Trump then said that he had “cancelled the meeting and called off peace negotiations” because the Taliban had “admitted to an attack in Kabul that killed one of our great soldiers.”

Trump can smell a bad deal when it is presented to him, and the deal that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and his lead US-Taliban negotiator, Zalmay Khalilzad, is cooking up with the Taliban is a real stinker.
First, it’s just not possible to pick a worse moment to be cozying up to the Taliban.

 

Consider that photos of Taliban leaders meeting with Trump at Camp David would have landed on front pages everywhere as the United States commemorates the 18th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks on Wednesday. The Taliban, of course, sheltered Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda for years after they had attacked two US embassies in Africa in 1998 and a US warship in Yemen in 2000 — and again after the 9/11 attacks as well.
Second, however, you dress it up, Khalilzad is negotiating a withdrawal agreement with the Taliban, not a peace agreement. Simply because the US withdraws its troops from a conflict doesn’t mean the war is over. President Barack Obama’s administration discovered that when it pulled all its troops out of Iraq at the end of 2011, which helped to create a vacuum that ISIS then deftly exploited. Trump has rightly criticized the Obama administration for that withdrawal.
In broad strokes the US deal with the Taliban, the precise details of which have been tightly held, calls for the phased withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, beginning with some 5,000 of the 14,000 presently stationed there. The ultimate goal of the deal is a total US withdrawal before the US presidential election in 2020. For their part, the Taliban must agree to end any active or passive support for jihadist terrorist groups on their territory as a condition for the continued withdrawal of American forces.
Third, the negotiations have encountered some significant snags, not least that the Taliban keep killing American soldiers even as they negotiate “peace.” The soldier that Trump referred to in his tweet, Sgt. 1st Class Elis Angel Barreto Ortiz, was the 16th American serviceman to be killed in Afghanistan in 2019.
On Saturday, Trump tweeted about the Taliban, “If they cannot agree to a ceasefire during these very important peace talks … then they probably don’t have the power to negotiate a meaningful agreement anyway.” Quite so.
The fourth problem is that the Taliban has consistently refused to negotiate directly with the elected Afghan government, despite the fact that the outcome of their talks with the United States will deeply affect the Afghan people the Afghan government represents. The cancelled Camp David talks appear to have been an effort to bring Taliban leaders and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani together, since Ghani was also going to be attending.
The fifth issue is that the US government is prioritizing “peace” negotiations with the Taliban rather than the electoral process in Afghanistan. Lost in all the hoopla around the talks with the Taliban is that there will be a presidential election in Afghanistan on Sept. 28. This will be the fourth such election since the Taliban were expelled from power after the 9/11 attacks, and while past elections have been marred by fraud, they have also brought about a peaceful transfer of power, which is quite rare in Afghan history.
Bizarrely, the US government’s position is that the peace talks with the unelected theocrats of the Taliban are more important than the elections contested by Afghanistan’s democratically elected leaders. The US ambassador to Afghanistan, John Bass, even acknowledged this publicly in June, saying, “Secretary Pompeo noted that highest priority is peace, as well as it’s important for election planning to go ahead without delay.”

 

 

The Trump administration seems to be trying to thread an impossible needle: to cut a peace deal with the Taliban, who are demanding a total American withdrawal from Afghanistan, while at the same time ensuring that the country does not revert to what Trump has termed a “Harvard for terrorists,” which a complete US withdrawal would surely help to enable.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration is treating the Taliban as if the group is a government-in-waiting while simultaneously undercutting the legitimate Afghan government.
Last month retired General David Petraeus, who generally avoids making any kind of public statement criticizing American government policy, took to the op-ed pages of the Wall Street Journal, declaring “the kind of U.S. withdrawal that was inadvisable in Iraq eight years ago would be indefensible for Afghanistan today.” This was a strong statement coming from the general who had commanded both the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
It seems that Trump has now focused on the fact that cutting a withdrawal deal with the Taliban might saddle him with a loss in Afghanistan that could become a real headache in his second term, should he secure one.
Trump is willing to walk away from a negotiation, as he did in February when he abruptly canceled a summit in Hanoi with the North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un. The North Koreans had put on the table ceasing the production of plutonium at their Yongbyon nuclear facility — a well-known source of material for North Korea’s nuclear weapons — in exchange for the removal of all United Nations sanctions enacted since 2016.
Trump decided to walk away from the negotiating table since the North Korean offer left other uranium enrichment facilities functioning in that country while dropping the UN sanctions that would have ended any leverage he had over the North Koreans.
The winner from the canceled Camp David summit is the elected Afghan president Ghani, who will run for reelection at the end of this month and may well win. And whoever wins that election will be in a far stronger position to insist that the next round of negotiations with the Taliban must include the duly elected Afghan government.

Mattis had problems with Trump — and with Obama, Biden and Bush, CNN.com

Mattis had problems with Trump — and with Obama, Biden and Bush

Peter Bergen is CNN’s national security analyst, a vice president at New America and a professor of practice at Arizona State University. He is completing a book about President Trump’s national security team and policies. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion articles at CNN.

(CNN)Jim Mattis’ memoir “Call Sign Chaos: Learning to Lead,” published Tuesday, is already the number one bestseller on Amazon.

The book has garnered a good deal of attention, largely because Mattis resigned as secretary of defense in December, saying that he disagreed with President Trump’s unilateral decision to withdraw all US troops from Syria and with the President’s denigration of key American allies.
Lost in much of the one-dimensional coverage of Mattis’ book is what is actually in it. It’s true that Mattis implies sharp criticism of Trump, but he also registers strong disagreement with George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, who he argues made strategic errors that have been costly to the American military and to American interests.
Interviewers on Mattis’ book tour have pressed him about Trump, but he has largely maintained what he refers to as the French virtue of the “devoir de réserve” — the duty of silence — that he says former public servants should keep about their work. In his book, Mattis observes “I’m old fashioned: I don’t write about sitting Presidents.”
But Mattis also told Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic that his duty of silence wasn’t “eternal” and, based on some of his criticisms of former American presidents in “Call Sign Chaos,” when Mattis finally does unload on Trump it won’t be pretty.
There is much to recommend Mattis’ memoir, as it combines an account of his storied military career intertwined with some broader, well-articulated thoughts about the nature of leadership.
Mattis is not, for instance, a fan of PowerPoint, which is pervasive in the US military and is “the scourge of critical thinking” as it “encourages fragmented logic by the briefer and passivity in the listener.” Quite so.
Coauthored with Bing West, a fellow Marine and the author of several important books about conflicts going back to Vietnam, “Call Sign Chaos” is also well written, and it shines considerable light on Mattis’ thinking about American wars since the first Gulf War.
(For those puzzled by the title “Call Sign Chaos,” “Chaos” was Mattis’ call sign, a unique identifier on the battlefield, and a tongue-in-cheek acronym that nodded to his propensity for always coming up with new ideas when he was a colonel: “Colonel Has An Outstanding Solution.”)
Mattis fought in the first Gulf War against the army of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein that had seized Iraq’s neighbor Kuwait in August 1990. Mattis admires President George H.W. Bush for assembling a large coalition of Western and Arab allies to join the fight against Saddam, for establishing the limited, achievable war aim of pushing the Iraqis out of Kuwait, and also for avoiding “sophomoric decisions like imposing a ceiling on the number of troops or setting a date when we would have to stop fighting.” These are not-so-veiled critiques of the administrations of George W. Bush and Barack Obama, which also come in for some even more direct criticism from Mattis.

Afghanistan after 9/11

Mattis, who is fond of quoting the philosophers of antiquity, doesn’t quote Seneca’s maxim that “luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity” — but that is clearly what happened in the months after 9/11 when he was deployed to the Middle East. Then-Brigadier General Mattis commanded a Marine assault deep into the heart of Taliban territory in southern Afghanistan.
It was during this episode that Mattis’ emphasis on the importance of the training and rehearsing of his Marines bore fruit. Mattis writes, “My intent was to rehearse until we could improvise on the battlefield like a jazzman in New Orleans. This required a mastery of the integuments of war, just as a jazz musician masters his musical instrument.”
And improvise they did. The Marines who deployed for the assault into Afghanistan were stationed on warships in the North Arabian Sea that were cruising 400 miles to the south of their objective, a deserted airfield not far from the Taliban’s de facto capital of Kandahar in southern Afghanistan. Mattis is too modest to point out that this was the longest aerial assault from ships in American military history, but his book does a fine job of explaining how he achieved this feat.
Mattis has a well-earned reputation for bluntness. This episode begins with Mattis meeting with the US ambassador to Pakistan, Wendy Chamberlain, who asked him why he was in her office. Mattis replied: “Madam Ambassador, I’m taking a few thousand of my best friends to Afghanistan to kill some people.” Chamberlain replied, “I think I can help you.”
Mattis needed Chamberlain to help him secure Pakistani permission to fly his gunships and helicopters over Pakistan’s territory after which his Marines would land on the airfield in neighboring southern Afghanistan. This movement of a thousand Marines required the nighttime refueling of the gunships and helicopters in the air. Tricky stuff. But Mattis pulled it off and the Marines of “Task Force 58” seized the airfield, which greatly limited the freedom of maneuver of the Taliban and al Qaeda in southern Afghanistan.
Gen. Tommy Franks, the Central Command (CENTCOM) commander in charge of the Afghan War, then “baffled” Mattis by publicly saying that this Marine force was not meant to attack Kandahar. CENTCOM also capped the number of troops on the ground to a thousand even though Mattis had an additional 3,500 Marines waiting on the ships in the North Arabian Sea.
Franks’ lack of initiative helps account for one of the most baffling episodes of the “war on terror,” which was the failure to send any of Mattis’ Marines to the battle of Tora Bora in eastern Afghanistan in December 2001, where Osama bin Laden was holed up with hundreds of al Qaeda fighters and from where he would eventually escape.
Mattis says he fully expected to deploy his Marines to destroy al Qaeda’s high command, and he had a well-developed plan for how he would try to seal off the mountainous region of Tora Bora so bin Laden couldn’t escape. But the order to deploy never came.
Franks has said he didn’t want to repeat the Soviets’ mistakes in Afghanistan by sending “armor battalions” into the mountains. But Mattis wasn’t proposing this option; he was planning to send in only light infantry and Special Operations Forces in helicopters. It would take another decade before American forces would find and kill bin Laden in Pakistan.
While bin Laden was in Tora Bora, a detachment of US Special Forces was deployed near Kandahar. They were bombed in a “friendly fire” incident on December 5, 2001, when an American plane dropped a bomb that inadvertently killed three US servicemen and wounded others.
Mattis has come in for criticism for not immediately responding to the calls for help from the Special Forces. He briefly addresses this issue in the book by saying he had conflicting information about the location of the incident, and he was also concerned about sending his helicopters to a “hot landing zone” in “broad daylight.” This explanation is unlikely to satisfy the Special Forces soldiers who were bombed and who expected immediate American assistance.

Invading Iraq

More than a year later, Mattis was “stunned” by George W. Bush’s decision to invade Iraq. Mattis thought Saddam was already “boxed in” by daily American flight patrols over Iraq and the sanctions then in place against his regime. But Mattis saluted and led a division of Marines in the invasion of Iraq and the march to Baghdad.
Mattis pushed for taking Baghdad as speedily as possible. He recounts an episode that says much about his leadership style. One of his colonels — who isn’t named in the book, but is Joe W. Dowdy — told Mattis he didn’t want to lose men by pushing forward at a reckless pace. Mattis didn’t want to lose men either, but he understood that men would die in battle and he believed that “the mission must come first” and that “hesitancy can expose other units to failure.” Mattis’ firing of Colonel Dowdy made front page news in the United States.
On March 31, 2014, four American contractors working for Blackwater were killed, their bodies burned and strung up on a bridge in the Iraqi city of Fallujah. Mattis, who had studied the costs of urban warfare in Vietnam and World War II, thought a frontal assault on Fallujah wasn’t a smart idea and that the killers of the contractors could be bought to justice in other more stealthy ways. But the order to attack the city was given by Bush administration officials.
Then, equally stupidly in Mattis’ estimation, a few days into the Fallujah operation and “close to victory,” Bush officials ordered a halt because they were concerned about the optics of the American assault on the city. Mattis observed to his military superior, “If you’re going to take Vienna, take f—–g Vienna,” in doing so repeating, with force, “Napoleon’s outburst to his field marshal who hesitated to take that city.”
Mattis, who became CENTCOM commander under Barack Obama, is especially critical of Obama’s decision to withdraw all US troops from Iraq at the end of 2011. Mattis believed it was necessary to leave a “residual force” of 18,000 troops in Iraq, but then-Vice President Joe Biden who was in charge of Iraq policy for the administration “wanted our forces out of Iraq. Whatever path led there fastest, he favored,” according to Mattis. Mattis argued that the vacuum left by a total US withdrawal would be “filled by Sunni terrorists.”
Of course, Mattis turned out to be right. Two and half years later, ISIS seized vast amounts of Iraqi territory including Mosul, the second largest city in the country.
Mattis is also critical of Obama’s announcement, when he ordered a surge of troops into Afghanistan in December 2009, that their withdrawal would begin a year and half later. Mattis asked a Pakistani officer detailed to his staff what message Obama had just sent. The Pakistani officer replied, “You’re pulling out.”
By implication, Mattis is not comfortable also with the recent discussion by the Trump administration of a total withdrawal from Afghanistan. Mattis points out that the US has kept tens of thousands of troops in South Korea since the end of the Korean War in 1953, during which time the once war-torn country transformed into a “vibrant democracy.” Based on the “instructive” example of South Korea, Mattis said he proposed repeatedly in White House meetings that at least 10,000 American troops remain in Afghanistan “without any specified timeline for withdrawal.”

Iran

Mattis faults the Obama administration for not responding forcefully to an Iranian plot in 2011 to kill the Saudi ambassador to the United States with a bomb at Café Milano, an upscale restaurant in Washington, DC. (Iran has denied any responsibility for the plot). The Obama team also didn’t respond a few months later to an Iranian fighter jet taking shots at an American drone flying in international air space over the Gulf. Mattis wanted permission to shoot down any Iranian aircraft that was attacking American drones.
This permission was denied, and unbeknownst to Mattis, Obama officials were secretly negotiating what became the Iran nuclear agreement. Mattis’ term as CENTCOM commander was ended early by the Obama administration.
Mattis concludes his book with one of the key themes in the resignation letter that he submitted to President Trump in December, writing “I’ve had the privilege to fight for our country in many places. Not once did I fight in a solely American formation. … History is compelling. Nations with allies thrive, and those without wither.” Mattis observes that when his advice about “keeping faith with allies no longer resonated, it was time to resign.”
Overall, Mattis has a lot to say about how you create a “command climate” and “commander’s intent” that is well communicated to your troops, especially during the fog of war. Mattis favors “a centralized vision,” but “decentralized planning and execution” so that units on the ground don’t need to keep asking permission to execute their commander’s intent, a lesson that can be applied also to civilian endeavors.
The book is also a meditation on the proper relations between the military and their civilian leaders, a subject that Mattis co-edited a book about before he joined the Trump administration.
Military leaders have to follow civilian orders in the American system, but they are also duty-bound to give their best military advice even if it conflicts with their political bosses’ inclinations, whether it was to keep troops in Iraq during the Obama administration or to maintain good relations with NATO during the Trump administration. When that advice is ignored they can resign, as Mattis did.
It gets trickier when, as in the case of the order to Mattis to attack Fallujah in 2004, the commander has to carry out an operation he disagrees with. In that instance, the troops under his command didn’t have the luxury of resigning, so he felt he had no choice but to remain their commander.

House Homeland Security Ctte. hearing, “Global Terrorism: Threats to the Homeland.”

10a Cannon Office Building room 310

Center for Naval Analyses (CNA), DC

Moderated by:

Dr. William Rosenau, Senior Policy Historian, CNA

Following the September 11th terror attacks, US counterterrorism efforts have largely focused on international Islamist terrorist organizations based overseas. Yet since 2001, domestic terrorism has killed more Americans than international terrorism. Law enforcement officials have noted in Congressional testimony this year that there has been a recent rise in domestic terror cases, a large proportion of which involve extremist ideologies such as white supremacism. Policymakers are facing critical questions: What is driving the apparent rise in domestic terrorism? What transnational linkages have formed between violent extremists? And how should the global campaign against Islamist terrorism inform our responses to other forms of extremism?

Please join us for an on-the-record discussion with Peter Bergen, national security analyst for CNN, Vice President of Global Studies and Fellows at New America, and author of The United States of Jihad, and Arie Perliger, Professor and Director of Security Studies at the University of Massachusetts Lowell, who has written about political extremism and terrorism in Israel, Europe, and the United States. Dr. William Rosenau, a terrorist innovation expert at CNA and author of Tonight We Bombed the U.S. Capitol, will moderate. The conversation will explore whether and how the United States should re-think the balance between external and internal threats in its counterterrorism efforts and allocation of resources. It will also seek to uncover comparative insights that could inform law enforcement responses to extremism and domestic terrorism in the United States.

This event is open to the public but registration is required. Please register no later than COB on September 5th if you would like to attend. If you have any questions, please contact CNA_NSS@cna.org. Media attending the event should register and contact Elizabeth Cutler at cutlere@cna.org.

Limited parking is available in the pay-for-parking garage located behind the CNA building on 11th Street North. The CNA building is one block from the Clarendon Metro station. Please bring government-issued photo ID for check-in at the front desk. Refreshments will be available.

The CNA National Security Seminar series is an initiative to bring together thought-leaders from across the U.S. government, academic and research institutions, the private sector, and U.S. partner nations to share their expertise, facilitate discussions, and contribute to an on-going dialogue about critical national security issues. CNA is uniquely positioned to examine the range of these issues through the Center for Naval Analyses, which supports the Department of Defense, and the Institute for Public Research, which supports homeland security, public safety, and emergency operations at all levels of govern

Al Qaeda Today, 9/ 11 Memorial Museum, NYC

Al-Qaeda Today
Tuesday, November 19, 7:00 p.m.
Over eight years after the killing of Osama bin Laden, the State Department recently declared al-Qaeda to be as much of a threat to the U.S. as it ever has been. As a complement to the 9/11 Memorial Museum’s upcoming exhibition, al-Qaeda experts Peter Bergen, Bruce Hoffman, Mary Galligan and Mark Stout discuss the future of the terrorist group.

The threat to America that Trump ignores, CNN.com

The huge threat to America that Trump ignores

Peter Bergen is CNN’s national security analyst, a vice president at New America and a professor of practice at Arizona State University. He is the author of “United States of Jihad: Investigating America’s Homegrown Terrorists.” David Sterman is a senior policy analyst at New America. The opinions expressed in this commentary are their own. View more opinion articles at CNN.

(CNN)The Trump administration’s National Counterterrorism Strategy correctly states that the country has “long faced a persistent security threat from domestic terrorists who are not motivated by a radical Islamist ideology but are instead motivated by other forms of violent extremism.”

Saturday’s attack in El Paso, Texas, which is being treated as a case of domestic terrorism by federal authorities, according to the US attorney for the Western District of Texas, is a reminder of that long history and its particular threat today.
To prevent future attacks, the United States will need to expand on the work being done by law enforcement to combat right-wing terrorism, and President Donald Trump will need to recognize that the threat posed by far-right terrorists is of a similar scope to that posed by jihadist terrorists.
Trump should also use the bully pulpit of his presidency to attack the ideological underpinnings of right-wing violence rather than stoking its flames.
On Saturday, authorities say, a 21-year-old white man shot and killed 20 people at a Walmart in El Paso, Texas. Minutes before the attack, police say, they believe the shooter posted a “manifesto” on 8chan, an online message board often featuring racist postings, about his support for the terrorist who killed 50 worshippers at two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand, in March.

Just as school shooters learn from other school shooters, terrorists learn from other terrorists. Notably, the terrorist who carried out the Christchurch attack had posted a manifesto to 8chan just before he carried out the attacks at the mosques.
The latest online manifesto — a four-page document — referred to a “Hispanic invasion” of Texas as the rationale for an imminent terrorist attack in El Paso.
Trump has also described immigrants coming across the southern border as an “invasion.” However, the writer of the document says his views about immigrants predated Trump becoming president.
The attack in El Paso, if the investigation proves it to be the work of a white nationalist, would be far from the only lethal far-right attack in recent years. Since 9/11, terrorists motivated by far-right ideology, including white supremacy, anti-government and anti-abortion views, have killed 107 people in the United States, according to New America’s research. Meanwhile, jihadist militants have killed 104 people in the United States since those attacks.
In other words, far-right terrorists have killed similar numbers as jihadist terrorists have in the United States in the past 18 years.
Additionally, according to New America’s data, most far-right terrorist attacks since 9/11 have killed relatively small numbers of people. In the past two years, however, terrorists inspired by far-right ideology have been carrying out mass-casualty attacks. And, if it’s confirmed that far-right ideology was behind the attack in El Paso, it is the most lethal far-right terrorist attack in the post-9/11 period.
Less than a year ago, a shooter who was inspired by anti-immigrant conspiracies killed 11 people at a synagogue in Pittsburgh, the deadliest attack against Jews in American history.
Across a wide spectrum of ideologies and beliefs, terrorist violence is rising in the United States. Terrorists inspired by ideological misogyny have, for instance, killed eight people in the United States in recent years. One shooter killed six in Isla Vista, California, in 2014 in attacks he framed in terms of his hatred for women. And last year, a gunman killed two women at a yoga studio in Tallahassee, Florida, using the same rationale. Similarly, individuals inspired by black nationalist ideology have killed eight people in the United States in the past three years.
Meanwhile, since 9/11, no foreign terrorist organization has carried out a deadly attack in the United States. Every one of the perpetrators of the 13 deadly jihadist attacks that have killed 104 people in the United States since 9/11 was a US citizen or legal permanent resident.

 

Yet the Trump administration continues to fail to recognize the true nature of the terrorist threat in the United States. Its answer to terrorism was suspending travel from largely Muslim countries that would not have stopped a single deadly terrorist attack since 9/11.
To its credit, law enforcement is investigating far-right terrorist threats. According to FBI Director Christopher Wray, there have been about 100 domestic-terrorism-related arrests this year.
That said, more needs to be done, as underlined by the statement on Sunday from six of the nation’s top former counterterrorism officials who served under Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Trump. It reads, “it has become abundantly clear over many months now that more must be done to address acts of violence driven by extremist views of all types, including acts of domestic terrorism. We call on our government to make addressing this form of terrorism as high a priority as countering international terrorism has become since 9/11. … We simply cannot wait any longer.” Indeed.

Bin Laden heir dead: A blow to al-Qaeda? CNN.com

Bin Laden heir dead: A blow to al-Qaeda?

Peter Bergen is CNN’s national security analyst, a vice president at New America and a professor of practice at Arizona State University. He is the author of four books about al-Qaeda including “Manhunt: The Ten Year Search for bin Laden, from 9/11 to Abbottabad.” The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion articles at CNN.

(CNN)A US official confirmed to CNN that Hamza bin Laden, Osama bin Laden’s son, is believed dead and that the United States had a role in his death.

Cathy Scott-Clark, a British journalist who has written extensively about the bin Ladens and is in touch with the family, confirmed Hamza’s death to me.
Hamza, believed to be 30, was being groomed to be a next-generation leader of al Qaeda.
Hamza had appeared in al Qaeda propaganda videos since he was a child. In recent years, he also had started releasing statements that positioned himself as one of al Qaeda’s ideologues — for instance, Hamza released an audio statement in 2016 calling for unity among the jihadist militants fighting in Syria.
Earlier this year the US State Department announced a $1 million reward for information about Hamza
Despite Hamza’s increasing public profile there is no evidence to suggest that he played a successful operational role in al Qaeda organizing terrorist attacks around the world. Indeed, there hasn’t been a lethal attack by al Qaeda in the West since a terrorist operation in London that killed 52 commuters on the London transportation system in 2005. Hamza bin Laden, fortunately, did nothing to reverse this.
The night that Osama bin Laden was killed on May 2, 2011, in Abbottabad Pakistan, the US Navy SEAL operators who carried out the mission were carrying cards with the names and descriptions of who was likely to be in the compound that night. Among them was Hamza bin Laden.
Hamza, however, was not there that night so he survived, unlike another of bin Laden’s sons, Khalid, who was killed during the operation.
For much of the decade after 9/11, Hamza lived under a form of house arrest in Iran until he was released by the Iranian regime in 2010.
From Iran, Hamza made his way to the tribal areas of Waziristan in Pakistan on the border with Afghanistan, an al Qaeda stronghold. The tribal areas have long been in the crosshairs of the CIA, which has launched more than four hundred strikes in the region, according to a count by New America, a research institution.
At bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad the SEALs recovered thousands of documents, including letters from bin Laden that showed that al Qaeda’s leader had been communicating with Hamza.
Nelly Lahoud, a fellow at New America, has examined all of the documents recovered from the Abbottabad compound for a book she is writing. Lahoud says that Hamza wrote to his father that he was eager to receive military training after which he planned to go and fight in Afghanistan against “God’s enemies.”
In one of the recovered letters bin Laden fretted to an aide about the possibility of a CIA drone strike killing his son, writing, “Make sure to tell Hamza that I am of the opinion he should get out of Waziristan.” Hamza should decamp for the Persian Gulf kingdom of Qatar, bin Laden advised.
It seems quite likely that Hamza never followed this advice and remained in Pakistan’s tribal regions where he was likely picked off by a CIA drone strike. There have been a total of 13 drone strikes in Pakistan during the Trump administration, according to New America’s count.

Trump clashes with a truth teller and replaces him with a partisan sycophant, CNN.com

Trump clashes with a truth teller and replaces him with a partisan sycophant

Peter Bergen is CNN’s national security analyst, a vice president at New America and a professor of practice at Arizona State University. He is the author of “United States of Jihad: Investigating America’s Homegrown Terrorists.” The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion articles at CNN.

(CNN)Dan Coats, the director of national intelligence, is resigning, according to a tweet on Sunday from President Donald Trump.

Coats’ departure was utterly predictable because he performed his job, which was to tell the truth. Unfortunately, his boss didn’t like those truths.
On many of the key foreign policy and national security issues of the Trump administration — Iran, ISIS, North Korea and Russia — the director of national intelligence and the President fundamentally disagreed about the facts. So naturally Trump is nominating Rep. John Ratcliffe (R-Tex) as his candidate to replace Coats — with the principal qualification for the job appearing to be his unquestioning fealty to Trump.
Trump’s animus against Coats began in earnest when he testified about the findings of the “Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community” to the Senate Intelligence Committee on January 29.
The assessment is an annual report of the 17 American intelligence agencies are overseen by the Director of National Intelligence. The report generally attracts scant political controversy since it is widely understood to be an objective recounting of the threats that the United States faces.
2019’s Worldwide Threat Assessment would be different. Coats testified that North Korea was “unlikely to completely give up its nuclear weapons and production capability because its leaders ultimately view nuclear weapons as critical to regime survival.”
Trump was said to be “enraged” by the coverage of Coats’ testimony, which he believed undercut his efforts with the North Koreans to have them agree to complete “denuclearization.”
Experts on North Korea almost universally believe that it is quite doubtful that North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un will give up all his nukes.

Iran and ISIS

Coats also testified that the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement was working: “We continue to assess that Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities we judge necessary to produce a nuclear device.” If that was the case, why was Trump constantly claiming that Iran was a big threat and the Iran nuclear agreement was a terrible deal?
The morning after Coat’s testimony, Trump let loose a tweetstorm writing, “The Intelligence people seem to be extremely passive and naive when it comes to the dangers of Iran. They are wrong!”
The President also tweeted, “Perhaps Intelligence should go back to school!”
Once Trump starts publicly contradicting his top aides they are generally toast. It would only be a matter of the time and the method for the inevitable parting of ways.
In the threat assessment, Coats also explained that, “ISIS still commands thousands of fighters in Iraq and Syria, and it maintains eight branches, more than a dozen networks, and thousands of dispersed supporters around the world, despite significant leadership and territorial losses.” This contradicted Trump’s frequent claims that ISIS was dead.

The Russia clash

All this came around six months after Trump and Coats had publicly disagreed about Russia. On July 16, 2018 Trump met in Finland with Russian President Vladimir Putin for a two-hour meeting that included no other officials.
At a news conference in the Finnish capital, Helsinki, standing next to Putin, instead of endorsing the unanimous finding of US intelligence agencies that Russia had interfered in the 2016 presidential election, Trump observed that Putin was “extremely strong and powerful in his denial … He just said ‘it’s not Russia.’ I will say this, I don’t see any reason why it would be.”
Trump then dumped on his own country saying, “I think that the United States has been foolish. I think we’ve all been foolish… I think we’re all to blame.” In fact, as special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation had discovered, the ones to blame were a group of officers in Russia’s military intelligence agency, GRU.
Within hours of Trump’s news conference Coats released a statement pushing back on Trump saying, “We have been clear in our assessments of Russian meddling in the 2016 election and their ongoing, pervasive efforts to undermine our democracy …” It was an unusually direct public rebuke from Coats, a longtime conservative Republican.
Three days later, NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviewed Coats at the Aspen Security Forum. In the middle of the interview, a producer handed a note to Mitchell that flagged some breaking news. Mitchell told Coats that Trump had just invited Putin to the White House in the fall.
Coats looked so surprised that it looked like he might be just pulling Mitchell’s leg. Of course, the director of national intelligence knew that Putin was going to be visiting the White House!
The Aspen audience began to realize that Coats wasn’t joking when he said, “Say that again?”
Coats then added with a soupçon of sarcasm, “Okay …That’s going to be special.”
Trump is nominating Ratcliffe, a three-term House member and former federal prosecutor who previously was the mayor of Heath, Texas, population just under 9,000, to be the next director of national intelligence.
Coats, by contrast, had served in the Senate and House for two and half decades and was also US ambassador to Germany for four years.
A key qualification for the job seems to be the excoriating attack Ratcliffe made on special counsel Robert Mueller when he testified last week about his report on Russian interference in the 2016 election. Radcliffe’s attack seemed largely designed to appeal to the audience of one that he knew would be watching.
When Coats was in the Senate, he served with a senator who famously observed that “Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.”
Trump seems to want to reverse Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan’s well-known dictum so it now is, “I’m entitled to my own facts, which will match my opinions.”

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